Odds Against


10th November – Board 9. East/West Game. Dealer North.
Just because you have a finesse position doesn’t mean you have to take it and declarer was a little lucky on the featured hand because of the friendly lie of the cards.

North:
S K 10 5 4
H A 10 5 3
D A Q
C K 8 7

West:
S J 9 6 3 2
H Q 8 7
D K
C A 6 4 2

East:
S 8
H K 9 6 4 2
D 7 4 3
C Q J 5 3

South:
S A Q 7
H J
D J 10 9 8 6 5 2
C 10 9


  West
 North
  East
  South
    
     1H
     No
    2D
     No
     2NT
     No
    3D
     No
     3NT
    End
   


Once South has bid at the two-level 2NT is game forcing and 3NT becomes the likely contract. (Although I am not sure that 5D isn’t better.) In any event how do you play 3NT on the lead of the C3 when West wins the ace and returns the C2? If you can assume that the defenders are being honest to their system and that the clubs are breaking evenly then it must be wrong to cross to dummy with a spade and take a diamond finesse. Why? Well if West has Kxx in diamonds the suit cannot be established and if East has Kxx then he should duck the queen and once again the suit is blocked out. Much better to play diamonds from the top for even if the queen is allowed to win there are still two entries to dummy to set up the suit. As you can see the king falls singleton and declarer gets away with it!

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