Shrinking Violet

14^th June – Board 20: Game All. Dealer West.

It is tempting sometimes when opening light opposite a passed partner to back-pedal later on fearing that there might be a danger of the pudding being well and truly over-egged. I know of some Easts who fell into just such a trap on the hand shown below, turning from aggressive tiger to shrinking violet in a matter of seconds.

There is nothing wrong with opening 1♦ third in hand on that East hand and as a matter of fact it is hardly ever wrong to open on sub-standard hands in that position for the simple reason that partner is not likely to get too carried away. (So if you have a good suit and a rebid ready just go for it.) When partner responds 1♥ however that ten count becomes just huge for any number of reasons, a fact substantiated by the Losing Trick Count of just six. A bid of 3♥ is the order of the day and West will happily raise to game which, while not exactly laydown, is easily within the limits demanded of a vulnerable game. For the record this is something less than 40% because the bonus for making a vulnerable game is so large. And indeed for a non-vulnerable game you still need only about a 40% chance of success to make bidding it worthwhile. In the hand above if the diamond finesse is successful you just require there to be no more than two trump losers, so either a 2-2 split or for South to have singleton ace or his actual holding of AQJ. If the diamond finesse is failing however you would require trumps to be 2-2 with the ace in the South hand. Those mathematically minded can work out the odds.